Fitch Affirms GEAR at 'B+'; Outlook Stable

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

International scale credit ratings of Non-Financial Corporate issuers have a best- case rating upgrade scenario (de ned as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive direction) of three notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade scenario (de ned as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative direction) of four notches over three years. The complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on historical performance. For more information about the methodology used to determine sector-speci c best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings, visit https://www. tchratings.com/site/re/10111579 . Adequate Liquidity: GEAR group's healthy cash ow generation and well-spread debt maturities underpin the adequate liquidity. The group had USD320 million of debt as of end-2019 (end-2018: USD269 million), which included USD38 million of short-term debt and USD23 million of debt maturing in 2020 compared with the readily available cash of USD189 million. GEAR's debt is expected to increase by about USD45million in 2020, mainly to fund the two investments, Stanmore and Ravenswood, with part of the USD90 million out ow funded from sale of its investments inWestgold. The group's debt, both at GEMS and the holding-company level, has a gradual repayment structure except for the bond repayment in 2022. We expect the group to require partial re nancing of the bond, before 2022. We regard the re nancing risk as low, taking into account GEAR's adequate credit pro le and access to banks and capital markets. Both GEAR's subsidiaries, GEMS and Stanmore, have outstanding committed facilities for working capital purposes. GEMS also has an outstanding USD30 million facility, which it can use for capex. LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLYMATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF RATING